For a while there was a good deal of talk in the media about whether the BP would have to file bankruptcy to save itself from financial ruin.  As time goes on, it becomes clearer that the question should have been, “How many middle-class oil field production and supply workers, tour boat operators, and fishermen will be forced into bankruptcy by BP?”

BP has shown that it has the financial strength and political clout to survive consequences of its recklessness, but the “small people” (the words of the BP chairman of the board)  who were struggling every day to pay their mortgages don’t have the luxury of Libyan oil leases.  Generations of Louisiana shrimpers, oystermen, and commercial fishermen are looking at a bleak future.  Charter boat captains from Grand Isle to Orange Beach, Alabama are sitting idle in port, while the tourist-based hotels, motels, and restaurants which depend on beautiful beaches to draw their summer crowd are looking at the bills that keep coming in.

What usually happens after a major disaster is that the “small people” struggle for years to avoid bankruptcy and ultimately are forced into to the inevitable when everything else fails and everyone else has forgotten.  There will likely be a spike in bankruptcies along the entire Katrina corridor in late 2011 and early 2012.

Right around the time BP will be announcing record profits, corporate dividends, and executive officer bonuses from its Libyan oil leases.

Bill Cherbonnier Jr.